Treasury forecasts Tasmania to continue leading the nation in economic growth

Tasmania’s economy is forecast by Treasury to continue growing in per capita terms. Projections showing about 8 per cent growth over the next four years, outstripping population growth and continuing Tasmania’s run of per-capita economic growth.

“This isn’t economic growth propped up by population, it’s a result of the ingenuity and hard work of everyday Tasmanians,” Premier Rockliff said.

“Tasmania has been leading the nation for the past two years, and Treasury projections show our backing business plan is working.”

At a time of ongoing global uncertainty, including higher interest rates, inflation pressures, and geopolitical instability, Tasmania’s outlook stands out nationally.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff said Treasury’s forecasts show Tasmania continuing to grow over the 2026-27 Budget and Forward Estimates.

“The Budget is delivering a strong economy and caring community, with Treasury’s forecasts a strong indicator of economic resilience,” Premier Rockliff said.

“This is one of the most meaningful measures of how the economy is performing for Tasmanians.

“Since 2014, our Government has been investing in and delivering the infrastructure, services, innovation and business conditions needed for Tasmania to thrive.”

Treasury’s forward outlook builds on a strong historical trend. Australian Bureau of Statistics State Accounts show that Tasmania has consistently outperformed the nation on per capita growth in recent years.

In 2023-24, Tasmania recorded a 1.1 per cent GSP per capita growth, while national GDP per capita fell by 1 per cent. This divergence continued into 2024-25, with Tasmania again recording positive per capita growth while the national average declined.

“Tasmania’s per capita growth is not a one-off result; it’s been building over several years,” Premier Rockliff said.

“This is not an economy propped up only by growth in population, but through the determination and ingenuity of Tasmanians.”

Tasmania’s strong labour market underpins this performance, with unemployment remaining near record lows in recent years and forecast by Treasury to stay low across the forward estimates, supporting household incomes and economic stability.

“A strong labour market supports a strong economy,” Premier Rockliff said.

“With unemployment expected to remain low, Tasmanians are better placed to find and keep work, and businesses have the confidence to invest and grow.

“Our nation, and the world, are facing turbulent times, which is why this Budget sets Tasmania up for the future by tackling debt, keeping the economy strong and delivering the services and infrastructure we need.”